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Prof. Dr. Yossi Harpaz is Associate Professor of Sociology at Tel-Aviv University.
Wealthy individuals place a high premium on democracy and the rule of law. In countries where these crucial factors are absent or under threat, millionaires are on the lookout for insurance policies and exit options that would help protect their property and personal safety. Such concerns may be driving the recent surge in demand for Plan B residence visas among affluent Americans.
Over the past year, advisory firms and attorneys have been flooded with enquiries from wealthy Americans wanting to secure dual citizenship or long-term residence visas abroad as a form of insurance policy against potential disruptions. Interest spiked in the wake of the presidential elections, when it was clear that Donald Trump would return to the White House. But even before the elections, 2024 was a peak year in terms of US demand for golden visas and additional citizenships.1 This boom in interest reflects more than political partisanship. It conveys a mounting sense of apprehension about an increasingly polarized and unpredictable political system in the USA.
For now, American millionaires are mostly looking for an alternative option should the need arise. Relatively few have emigrated. However, other countries have seen mass exoduses of wealthy individuals in response to political crises. These include Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Hong Kong after China’s 2019 crackdown on civil liberties. Across the world, wealthier citizens seem to be leaving — or preparing to leave — countries that are becoming less free and stable, to avoid being trapped.
A recent study that I published in the British Journal of Sociology examines the relationship between democracy, rule of law, and millionaire mobility.2 The article asks, “What drives millionaires to acquire investment-based immigration visas?”, it joins the growing literature on elite mobility, while offering the first statistical analysis of the motives that propel millionaire migration.3
To learn about the market for investor visas, I analyzed statistics on the US EB-5 Immigrant Investor Visa Program, which provides a permanent residence visa — also called a Green Card — to wealthy foreigners who invest a hefty sum in job-creating businesses: a minimum of USD 800,000 (previously USD 500,000 for those who invested before November 2019). I studied visa acquisition between 2010 and 2019, when the program had an annual cap of approximately 10,000 visas. In fact, there was a backlog of applicants who waited for years to acquire this visa.
The study analyzed US EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program data to gain insights about investor visa programs more broadly. As one of the oldest and largest such initiatives, the American program offers sufficient data for analyzing the fluctuation of visa demand over time. Furthermore, it is structured to encourage immigration, rather than merely allowing individuals to hold a visa without having to relocate — which is often an option in other investor visa programs. This makes it particularly useful for understanding millionaire migration.
My analysis of the number and nationalities of individuals who acquired EB-5 visas between 2010 and 2019 revealed three prominent patterns that shed light on millionaire migration.
First, the majority of EB-5 visas were acquired by Chinese investors, who received more than 70% of the 81,125 investor visas granted by the USA between 2010 and 2019. In that decade, more than 12% of Chinese millionaires have obtained an EB-5 Immigrant Investor Visa.4 This figure, which is remarkably high in itself, reflects only a fraction of the actual demand for investor visas among wealthy Chinese entrepreneurs. A significant backlog of Chinese EB-5 visa applications remains, and tens of thousands more Chinese individuals have acquired investor visas from other countries including Australia, Canada, Portugal, Spain, and the UK. The total number of Chinese millionaires who hold some form of residence by investment visa abroad may be two or three times higher than the 57,000 who had received EB-5 visas from 2010 to 2019.
Second, demand for US investor visas was predominantly driven by millionaires from countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Wealthy individuals from Western countries such as Canada or Germany rarely applied for such visas. Alongside China, other leading countries in terms of visa acquisition include South Africa, Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, Taiwan (Chinese Taipei), Brazil, India, and Russia. All apart from South Korea and Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) are developing nations characterized by lower average incomes, weaker personal safety and political rights, and less valuable passports. This suggests that inequality in citizenship value, which shapes global demand for dual citizenship, also drives the acquisition of investor visas.5
Third, one factor stood out as the most important driver of demand: the quality of democracy. Using regression analysis, I found that when a country undergoes democratic backsliding, which threatens civil rights, political representation, and the rule of law, the demand for investor visas among wealthy elites increases. This important finding helps explain why thousands of millionaires hastily left Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Another notable example is Türkiye, where demand for EB-5 visas spiked in response to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s power-grabbing moves in 2014 and 2016. In contrast, factors such as economic development or inflation had no effect on millionaire migration.
These findings offer valuable insights into millionaire mobility. The study’s main takeaway is that wealthy elites place a significant premium on democracy and the rule of law. The past two decades have shown that non-democratic countries with little or no rule of law may be successful in promoting growth and elevating some of their citizens to substantial wealth.6 The most striking example is China, where the number of millionaires has boomed. However, my findings reveal another, less sanguine side of this story: these new millionaires do not feel secure and confident. Moneyed elites living under authoritarian regimes are constantly seeking alternatives and exit strategies to safeguard their assets and ensure their personal safety. Investor visas are one component of a broader set of tools that I refer to as ‘foothold strategies’, which aim to secure a lasting connection to a stable, democratic country that can serve as a safe haven. Other foothold strategies include obtaining dual citizenship, acquiring international real estate, or establishing an investment portfolio abroad.
But let us return to the point with which this article began. Wealthy Americans seem ever more interested in securing footholds in other countries. Henley & Partners’ statistics show that the annual number of enquiries from Americans seeking residence visas and passports via citizenship programs has increased sixfold since 2019. Americans are now the largest source market for golden visas in Spain and Portugal, as well as for citizenship in Antigua and Barbuda, and in Malta. These figures reflect a sense of insecurity among affluent Americans. According to The Economist's Democracy Index, the quality of democracy in the USA has been declining since 2016. It appears that wealthy Americans are increasingly concerned about democracy, stability, and the rule of law, prompting them to seek investor visas, alternative residences, and additional citizenships in other countries. Ironically, while the USA remains a highly attractive destination for foreign immigrants, including millionaires, America’s affluent elite are increasingly eager to secure a foothold abroad as a contingency plan.
Notes
1 Statistics received from Henley & Partners on residence and citizenship acquisition. See also Robert Frank. “Record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the U.S. after the election”. 1 November 2024, updated 5 December 2024. CNBC. cnbc.com/2024/11/01/wealthy-americans-plans-leaving-united-states.html
2 Harpaz, Yossi. 2022. “One foot on shore: An analysis of global millionaires’ demand for U.S. investor visas”. British Journal of Sociology, 73(3): 554–570.
3 For literature on this question see the following works: Ong, Aihwa. 1999. Flexible Citizenship: The Cultural Logics of Transnationality. Durham, NC: Duke University Press; Ley, David. 2011. Millionaire Migrants: Trans-Pacific Life Lines. John Wiley & Sons; Liu-Farrer, Gracia. 2016. “Migration as Class-based Consumption: The Emigration of the Rich in Contemporary China”. The China Quarterly, 226, June 2016, 499–518; Young, Cristobal. 2018. The Myth of Millionaire Tax Flight: How Place Still Matters for the Rich. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press; Surak, Kristin. 2021. “Millionaire Mobility and the Sale of Citizenship”. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 47(1):166–189.
4 I used estimates from Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report databooks on the number of millionaires in each country and year. I only included millionaires with a net worth of over USD 5 million. In 2019, China was home to 462,366 millionaires with over USD 5 million.
5 Harpaz, Yossi. 2019. Citizenship 2.0: Dual Nationality as a Global Asset. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
6 Milanovic, Branko. 2019. Capitalism, Alone. Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University.
Henley & Partners assists international clients in obtaining residence and citizenship under the respective programs. Contact us to arrange an initial private consultation.
