‘America First’ Threatens to Put Africa Last

Leaders across the globe are grappling with the potential impact of the incoming US administration’s ‘America First’ trade and immigration policies. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to reinstate and expand the restrictive immigration policies of his first term, including bringing back travel bans that affected some African countries, carrying out the largest domestic deportation operation in US history, and introducing visa curbs that could negatively affect foreign students and skilled migrants.

Trump’s inward-looking policies should prompt African leaders to focus on faster implementation of pivotal, already existing, highly beneficial programs that can ignite greater intra-African trade and mobility. Two key African economies, Ghana and Kenya, have over the past month shown what’s possible. Ghana declared that it would allow visa-free entry to citizens of all African countries starting in early 2025, and Kenya announced plans to review its visa-free policy owing to concerns that its year-old Electronic Travel Authorisation (eTA) system will impact on tourism. Kenya wants to increase annual visitors from 2.5 million in 2023 to 5 million by 2027, but travelers have criticized the eTA’s  USD 30 fee and three-day processing time.

Improved intra-Africa trade and mobility plans have been set aside for years

Introduced in the 2010s, many of these initiatives have huge economic and human potential for the continent but have been left on the backburner as some states dealt with post-2020 pandemic-related issues, governance, and other challenges.

When the African Union (AU) unveiled Agenda 2063, its ambitious master plan for development and economic growth adopted in 2013, the goal was that restrictions on Africans’ ability to travel, work, and live within their own continent would be lifted swiftly. The reality did not match up to the lofty goals, though. Eight years after it was introduced in July 2016 in Kigali, Rwanda, the AU passport, which would allow holders to travel to all 55 recognized member states without needing a visa, is still not a reality.

A continent of closed borders

Although the first such passport was issued to Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame in 2016, only a very small group of diplomats, AU officials, and heads of state, and a handful of businesspeople have been issued the document.

Worse still, holders of the passport such as industrialist Aliko Dangote, Africa’s second-wealthiest person, still face visa requirements in certain countries. Dangote said in May 2024 that he has to apply for 35 different visas to get around the continent. That statistic is even more depressing when one considers that in 2016 Dangote needed 38 visas to travel around Africa. Progress in improving ease of travel on the continent has been at a virtual standstill.

Just 13 of the 54 African countries offer visa-free, visa-on-arrival, or electronic travel authority access to all African citizens. Forty-four (44) apply this policy to 10 or more African countries, of which 32 offer visa-free travel to at least 20 other African countries, according to the Henley Openness Index.

Numbers don’t lie — trade suffers when people can’t move

The impact of poor mobility among Africans is significantly negative for trade. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation points out that intra-continental trade constitutes less than 13% of Africa’s total trade, in comparison to 66.9% in Europe, 63.8% in Asia and Oceania, and 44.4% in the Americas.

“The dependence on external markets leaves the continent highly exposed to crises and shocks in other parts of the world, as showcased by the impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war,” the foundation concluded. It hardly needs pointing out that with a new administration taking over in Washington, D.C. on 20 January, the 24-year-old African Growth and Opportunity Act (which provides duty-free access to the USA for more than 1,800 products from 32 African countries and expires in September 2025), could face the axe.

The protocols on free movement of people are there — states should ratify them

This underlines the need for more focused and faster implementation of the AU’s own programs to accelerate trade and break down travel impediments. Following on the adoption of Agenda 2063, the AU approved a protocol on free movement of people in 2018. So far, 33 states have signed the protocol but only four countries (Mali,  Niger, Rwanda, and São Tomé and Príncipe) have ratified it (meaning they are legally bound by it).

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), born in March 2018, aims to build a single market for goods and services of 1.5 billion people and a combined GDP of USD 3.4 trillion. It has fared slightly better than the protocol on free movement of people, with the body’s secretary-general Wamkele Mene telling CNN that 37 countries are now ready to trade under its rules and preferences. Mene believes that intra-Africa trade could double in the next five years while the World Bank estimates AfCFTA could increase Africa’s income by USD 450 billion in 10 years.

Time for renewed action

That improvement hinges on African leaders acting swiftly to remove obstacles to the movement of people and goods, including easing visa restrictions. Initiatives such as Kenya’s Digital Nomad Work Permit and the country’s year-old visa-free travel policy are helpful, although many more countries need to come on board. Namibia’s new policy requiring visitors from 31 countries (including the UK, USA, and most of Western Europe) to obtain a visa on arrival will be tested when it starts on 1 April 2025.

Whatever happens, the arrival of a new, inward-looking, US leadership demands that the AU look to its own member states to invigorate intra-African trade and increase mobility on the continent. It is either that or wait to be on the receiving end as new US trade and immigration policies bite the world and Africa.