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David K. Young is the President of the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board and former Chief Executive Officer of Oxford Analytica, a leading geopolitical and macroeconomic analysis and advisory company.
The 2024 election ‘supercycle’ is in full swing. Rarer than a super blue moon, this is an election year the likes of which is not anticipated again until 2048. While the exact numbers do change as elections aren’t always set in stone or in some cases even known about very far in advance, the statistics that have been bandied about have been remarkable. Earlier this year we anticipated 83 national elections across 78 countries with over 4 billion votes to be cast and more than 50% of the world’s GDP going to the polls. “Democracy’s Super Bowl” is spurring heightened global uncertainty, and this naturally impacts the thinking of centi-millionaires.
While the election numbers are astonishing, they can also be distracting. It is important to investigate the numbers and to take every opportunity to ask the questions that matter. Are all the elections of genuine importance? Are they free and fair? Is there incumbent jeopardy at stake and if not, will there be a shift in policy? Is there any interplay between elections and anticipated policy changes?
For example, according to Freedom House, 48% of anticipated elections in 2024 were to be viewed as free, 30% as partly so, and 22% as not free. Simply knowing this alters how one interprets the numbers as well as the vantage point for each observer trying to understand the potential ramifications.
With the most anticipated election fast approaching, many countries sit on a knife edge before deciding economic policy, national security strategies, and international affairs diplomacy. Elections don’t take place in isolation. We live and operate in an intertwined global ecosystem, where macroeconomic and geopolitical events impact domestic policies, and these naturally impact the decisions of individuals. Covid and the Russia–Ukraine conflict are two recent examples that illustrate how certain events can cause severe shocks both to the global operating environment and to individual decisions.
It is almost impossible not to mention the effect of artificial intelligence (AI), which is having profound implications beyond the commonly discussed issue of workforce planning. Generative AI is a transformative power, fundamentally changing the world order and further escalating global uncertainty.
The past 100 years have seen multiple shifts in global power dynamics and configurations. Now, we see a new world order taking shape — one that has not yet been comprehensively described by academics or agreed upon by practitioners. What is clear is that this new global hierarchy does not align with existing boundaries or adhere to old school rules or definitions. It is fluid, changing increasingly rapidly, and becoming harder to understand and decipher. There are five key reasons why AI is playing a significant role in changing the world order.
AI is pivotal to the unfolding, and end state, of geopolitical competition. Compounding economies and national security benefits of leadership in AI will largely determine the outcomes of US–China rivalry and how countries around the world align themselves politically, economically, and socially. In short, potentially you will have to pick sides.
Middle powers including Canada, France, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, the UAE, and the UK will leverage AI to punch above their weight. These advanced economies with strong education and innovation systems can compensate for smaller population sizes and declining geopolitical influence by leveraging AI in their economies.
Less developed countries will fall behind in the current race for AI and its benefit to economic growth and national security. Without access to expensive computing power, physical infrastructure, and large AI talent pools, these countries will increasingly need to trade and provide market access in exchange for access to powerful AI.
Needless to say, those with powerful AI capabilities can seek to further their own agendas — regardless of the ramifications.
For the short term, governments will increasingly rely on private sector companies and their fast-paced AI innovations, leading to more public–private partnerships. For companies not torn between US–Chinese or West–East competition and restrictions there are potential opportunities, but these come with severe consequences should they not pick the winning side.
We live in unprecedented times. Divisions within countries and regions are elevated, clearly highlighted by the USA, many European countries following the recent EU elections, and the emerging conflicts in the Middle East.
Political uncertainty is a — if not, the — key driver behind the rising trend of millionaire and centi-millionaire migration. When considering a new destination, these wealthy individuals typically assess a range of factors that impact their decision-making process including quality of life, the economy, the tax environment, business and investment opportunities, and privacy and security. All these important aspects are usually more optimal in politically stable countries and regions, adding emphasis to the importance of political stability.
In 2024, most centi-millionaires remain concentrated in the USA (34%), followed by China, Germany, and India. One third of the world’s centi-millionaire community live in 50 key cities across the globe, with New York City wearing the crown with 744 resident centi-millionaires. We see 15 US cities in the global top 50 and 1,915 centi-millionaires between New York City, the Bay Area, and Los Angeles. Whether the US-to-Canada migratory trend identified last year and the global movement to the US continues into 2025 will depend largely on the upcoming US elections where we anticipate drastic differences in fiscal, monetary, economic, and social policies.
The US election results may detract from North America’s appeal as centi-millionaires turn to countries that provide greater economic security. But, at what long-term cost? So many of their decisions hinge on the potential fragility of the political environment. Current trends show Asia, notably China, being a central hub for centi-millionaires between Beijing (347), Shanghai (322), and Hong Kong (320). London hosts 370 centi-millionaires, and Europe has always played a role but whether it is seen as more of a residence than a vacation destination remains to be seen.
Wealth hubs worth keeping an eye on for companies operating in luxury goods, wealth management, and the hi-tech space see an acceleration of existing trends, anticipating that the USA will solidify its ranking as the top country for attracting centi-millionaires. Key US cities with healthy wealth growth forecasts include Philadelphia, Atlanta, Scottsdale, Montecito and Santa Barbara, Naples, Denver, Tampa and Sarasota, and Boca Raton. Yet, the number one city to watch remains Riyadh, with Manchester, Perth, Stockholm, Istanbul, and St. Petersburg closing out the Top 10. The Middle East, notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia, continues to be the most powerful millionaire magnet.
Approximately 65% of centi-millionaires owned second homes outside their home country, and if one includes second homes in their base country then this percentage rises to over 90%. Centi-millionaires like to travel and there are seasonal fluctuations, with a strong gravitation towards Europe and the USA. In Europe we see the top spots as Liguria (over 550 centis in season compared to the usual 84), Nice (500 compared to 95), the Algarve (250 versus 48), Cannes (200 compared to 28), and Mykonos (200 versus 22). In the USA, the Hamptons swells from 25 centis to over 600 in summer while Palm Beach and West Palm Beach mushroom from 69 to over 400, and a desire either to miss the heat or enjoy the snow out West sees Aspen’s centi population rise from 10, Park City’s from 12, and Jackson Hole’s from 15 — all to over 200.
The trends from the last year remain constant. The Middle East is a magnet, and Asia is seeing a great deal of movement, but most centi-millionaires are in the USA, with Canada remaining as its local rival.
Of all the factors centi-millionaires consider, political stability is pivotal and arguably outweighs all else. In the wake of Covid, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, rising Middle East tensions, the transformative impact of generative AI, and in an unprecedented election supercycle year, it is no surprise that a ‘wait and see’ strategy is being adopted as the world awaits the November US presidential election outcome. This trend is already acknowledged among multi-national corporations, which is understandable given how tight the race is and the significant global implications. As the dust settles post November, anticipate more movement in 2025 — either reinforcing and accelerating existing trends or, and this is a rarer scenario, altering the patterns that have been consistent for the last few years.
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